“STRONG association between the onset of VACCINATION programmes and the FERTILITY decline”

… several countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020 and 2021, a development which did not materialize in Scandinavian and German-speaking countries

…  a steep fertility decline in the aftermath of the pandemic in 2022

… unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden

… We relate the nine-months lagged fertility rates

… to contextual developments regarding COVID-19 mortality and morbidity

… unemployment rates

… and COVID-19 vaccinations

… There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment

… infection rates

… or COVID-19 deaths

… there is a strong association between the onset of vaccination programmes and the fertility decline nine months after of this onset

… The fertility decline in the first months of 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable

… Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply in its aftermath

… the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that people adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant

… Our study provides novel information on fertility declines in countries previously not affected by any COVID-19 baby bust